Super El Niño Is Coming; This Year Could Become The Hottest Year On Record

According to SAEDNEWS, El Niño is the warm phase of the natural “El Niño–Southern Oscillation” cycle, a climate cycle associated with periodic changes in the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which significantly increases global temperatures. This phenomenon also affects weather patterns and agricultural production around the world.

According to the latest forecast released by NOAA on May 14, there is now a 65% probability that the upcoming El Niño from October onward will fall into the “strong” or “very strong” category; an event that could place it among the most intense El Niño events ever recorded.

A “very strong” El Niño refers to a condition in which sea surface temperatures rise about 2°C above the normal average, a situation informally referred to as a “Super El Niño.” This scenario is now considered the most likely outcome for the October–February period.

The probability of El Niño beginning between now and July has also risen to 82%, and this condition is expected to last at least until February 2027. This represents about a 20% increase in confidence compared to NOAA’s April forecast.

El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years. This phenomenon forms when changes in wind patterns and Pacific Ocean currents cause sea surface temperatures to rise at least half a degree Celsius above the historical average. Even this relatively small increase can create massive chain effects on the global climate. The world is now rapidly exiting the neutral phase of this cycle.

The last major El Niño lasted from May 2023 to March 2024 and was partly responsible for 2024 being recorded as the hottest year in history. If the upcoming El Niño is strong or very strong, 2027 could set a new global warming record.

Some researchers believe this event could even break historical records. Paul Roundy, professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University at Albany, wrote on May 5: “Confidence in the occurrence of the largest El Niño since the 1870s is clearly increasing.”

If a “Super El Niño” does occur, it could rival the climatic disaster of 1877, which worsened the global famine of 1876–1878. That famine led to the deaths of more than 50 million people, about 3% of the world’s population at the time.

However, today’s social, economic, and political conditions are very different from the 19th century, but experts warn that the upcoming El Niño could still threaten food security, water resources, and economic stability in many regions.

Dipti Singh, director of the Climate Extremes and Impacts Laboratory at Washington State University, told The Washington Post: “The difference today is that our atmosphere and oceans are much warmer than in the 1870s, which means El Niño-related extreme events may become even more intense.”

Modern examples also highlight the risks of strong El Niño events. For instance, the 1997–1998 El Niño caused between $32 and $96 billion in global economic losses.

Nathaniel Johnson, an ENSO forecaster at NOAA, recently told Live Science that a very strong El Niño could affect fisheries and agricultural crops while also increasing the risk of wildfires and severe storms in some parts of the world.

Liz Stephens, professor of climate risk and resilience at the University of Reading in the UK, also told the BBC: “More people are now living in poverty, and if agricultural yields fall due to El Niño-related droughts or floods, food prices will rise further. So we may face major human impacts this year, especially if the Middle East crisis continues.”