SAEDNEWS: Former White House official Dennis Ross said that while Trump failed to secure Iran’s unconditional surrender, the war’s economic damage and massive reconstruction costs could create long-term challenges for Tehran and potentially lead to the rise of an “Iranian Gorbachev” focused on domestic development.
According to the Politics Service of Saed News Agency, Dennis Ross, a senior U.S. official and veteran diplomat who served in the Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Obama administrations, has analyzed the recent military confrontation and the agreement between Iran and the United States in a strategic memo for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He believes that although the Trump administration did not achieve all of its stated short-term objectives, it planted the seed of a major structural change in Tehran.
Ross argues that Iran demonstrated a high level of skill in using its leverage during this military confrontation and employed two powerful tools that were previously unexpected: disrupting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and attacking oil facilities in Gulf Arab countries.
The American analyst attributes Trump’s failure to distinguish between “regime change” and “weakening the regime’s tools” as the reason for this new reality. According to Ross, Iranian leaders, driven by a survival instinct, had never moved toward closing the Strait of Hormuz from 1987 to 1988; however, when Donald Trump signaled regime overthrow, Tehran realized it had nothing to lose and turned Hormuz into its main strategic leverage point.
The analysis further states that Trump realized this leverage too late and attempted to counter it by restricting Iran’s exports and imports. He even briefly threatened to carry out an operation called the “Freedom Project” to forcibly reopen the Strait, but quickly canceled it.
Trump’s repeated retreats, along with the fear of Gulf countries of Iranian missile and drone retaliation, seriously damaged Washington’s diplomacy. Dennis Ross predicts that even with a deal, Iran will in the future challenge shipping in the Strait of Hormuz under pretexts such as regulatory violations or the imposition of “navigation fees,” in order to show that conditions will not return to normal.
The former White House official expresses doubts about the sustainability of the agreement, writing that it may collapse due to issues such as an unstable ceasefire in Lebanon or differing interpretations of sanctions relief. U.S. officials emphasize that real sanctions relief is conditional on Iran’s accountability in the nuclear area, especially the removal and export of 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium.
The Washington Post analysis ultimately addresses the internal consequences of this conflict for Iran. Although Iran suffered more than 13,000 targeted strikes and deep damage to its industrial-defense base and a struggling economy, the main challenge begins now.
Ross argues that rebuilding Iran after the war requires massive financial resources that are incompatible with widespread unemployment and chronic governance inefficiencies. These crushing pressures do not necessarily lead to collapse, but they could pave the way for something the Iranian leadership strongly fears: the emergence of an “Iranian Gorbachev”—someone from within the system who prioritizes domestic development, engagement with the public, and ending confrontation with the outside world; a consequence of Trump’s chosen war.
The positions and analyses presented by Dennis Ross in this memo are stated while the course of field developments and the outcome of the recent conflict suggest a different reality. The United States and the Israeli regime, which entered the military phase with the ultimate goal of overthrowing the Islamic Republic of Iran, after failing on the battlefield and not achieving their objectives, were ultimately forced to accept reality, sit at the negotiating table with Tehran, and accept Iran’s full terms.
Furthermore, contrary to this Western official’s portrayal, based on the terms of the agreement, the Islamic Republic of Iran will receive specific financial resources as compensation and to cover damages caused by the United States, which is in clear contradiction with the above analysis. The Saad News Agency publishes this report solely to fulfill its mission of raising awareness, reflecting the views of Western think tanks, and familiarizing readers with their media space, and does not confirm the accuracy of the author’s claims.
