“Fifty-Fifty” Chance Of Another War; Tel Aviv Awaits Trump’s Decision

According to SAEDNEWS, Israeli officials say the probability of a renewed war with Iran is “50-50” and they are awaiting Donald Trump’s decision. An Israeli media report published on Sunday states that preparations in Tel Aviv for a possible return to conflict with Iran have intensified, and officials currently assess the likelihood of renewed fighting within days as “50 percent.”

The Ynet news site, citing Israeli officials, wrote that estimates about returning to war are “50 percent positive and 50 percent negative,” and sources say the final decision depends on US President Donald Trump.

The report says relevant institutions are preparing for a possible renewed conflict “with no safety margin” to avoid being caught off guard, while the scope of any potential confrontation remains described as unpredictable.

The report comes as Trump continues verbal threats against Iran, warning that “his patience is running out” and that “this story is not over.”

A week has passed since Trump described Tehran’s latest proposal as “unacceptable,” but he has still not made a final decision on resuming military action.

Ynet writes that growing dissatisfaction in the White House and a deadlock in nuclear negotiations suggest Trump may eventually authorize strikes against Iran, especially if he concludes Tehran is unwilling to accept his terms.

These remarks come as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to hold a high-level security meeting with a limited number of ministers on Sunday evening.

The developments follow Trump posting an image on his Truth Social account showing him on the deck of a ship in a stormy sea with the caption: “The calm before the storm.”

According to Ynet, Washington and Tel Aviv are already conducting intensive military preparations for the possibility of renewed war, with high-level coordination between the Israeli military, Mossad, and their US counterparts.

Sources cited in the report say the Israeli army is currently at the “highest level of readiness” for renewed conflict. However, officials reportedly believe Trump is unlikely to pursue the “maximum option” of attempting regime change in Iran, as he is reluctant to enter a path similar to the previous 42-day war. One official is quoted as saying: “He is stuck.”

The same sources claim Iran has partially rebuilt its missile capabilities and still refuses to abandon its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and financial incentives.

They add that Tehran has suffered major blows but has not retreated from its ideological path, and even the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would not necessarily lead to the collapse of the system.

According to the report, officials believe Trump is more likely to opt for limited strikes targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges, which some US officials believe could cause significant damage.

At the same time, the report says Trump may also order a ground operation despite concerns about its complexity. Among the scenarios discussed are operations to seize enriched uranium stored in underground facilities or to occupy an Iranian offshore oil island.

Another possibility mentioned is expanding the “Freedom Project,” described as an operation linked to freeing ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz. Maintaining or tightening the blockade of this strategic waterway is also said to remain a key objective to increase economic pressure on Iran.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu has held a series of security consultations in recent days regarding preparedness for renewed conflict, without convening the full security cabinet, limiting discussions to a smaller group of ministers. Officials also believe Iran may try to prolong tensions until after the FIFA World Cup begins on June 11 in the US, Canada, and Mexico.

While Trump has publicly denied that domestic political pressure from the economic consequences of war affects his decisions, a White House official told Ynet that Republicans are concerned a prolonged conflict could weaken their chances of retaining control of Congress in the November midterms.