SAEDNEWS: With nuclear talks stalling, European states may soon activate the JCPOA “snapback” mechanism, potentially restoring UN sanctions on Iran and reviving a crisis reminiscent of the pre-2015 era.
The implementation path of the snapback mechanism lies within the JCPOA’s dispute resolution framework. If any member of the agreement concludes that another member is not meeting its commitments under the deal, the matter can be raised at the Joint Commission. If unresolved after 35 days, the issue is referred to the UN Security Council.
In recent days, following stalled negotiations, European countries may even seek to trigger this mechanism earlier than scheduled. This suggests that the limited window for renewed talks with Europe and the chance for a new agreement is closing. Should no new deal emerge, Iran risks returning to the pre-nuclear deal security environment.
UN Security Council Resolution 2231, passed after the nuclear deal, lifted previous sanctions imposed on Iran. Prior to that, the Council had adopted six resolutions placing Iran under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, which applies to states deemed threats to international peace and security. If the snapback is activated, Iran would revert to this status, with sanctions automatically reimposed without the possibility of vetoes by countries like Russia or China.
Iran’s foreign minister previously warned that October 2025 marks the expiration of Resolution 2231. Once it lapses, the snapback option disappears. However, without a new agreement, Europe could still pursue snapback before then, raising the specter of renewed Security Council sanctions.
The United States, after withdrawing from the JCPOA, attempted to activate snapback but failed due to legal complexities. Today, however, given strained Iran-Europe relations and disputes with the IAEA, the likelihood of renewed UN sanctions has grown. Unlike unilateral U.S. sanctions, UN measures are binding on all member states.
Looking back, this trajectory echoes the mid-2000s, when Iran’s nuclear file moved from the IAEA to the Security Council. That referral occurred under Ali Larijani’s stewardship in the Ahmadinejad era, leading to harsh sanctions during Saeed Jalili’s tenure from 2007. The consequences were severe.
Now, the European trio (France, Germany, UK) has set three conditions for extending Resolution 2231: an immediate agreement between Tehran and Washington, the resumption of full-scope cooperation between Iran and the IAEA akin to the pre–12-day war period, and zero uranium enrichment by Iran. Tehran has so far rejected all three. Recently, Russia submitted a draft resolution at the Security Council to extend Resolution 2231.
The most likely scenario, potentially beginning around August 31, is that European states will push through the IAEA Board of Governors to refer Iran’s case back to the UN, accusing it of “serious JCPOA violations” and NPT deviations. This could pave the way not only for snapback sanctions but also for new Security Council resolutions against Iran. The only viable path to avoid this outcome remains a fresh agreement between Iran and Europe—something that has yet to materialize.
