SAEDNEWS: Economic experts warn that the return of the UN “snapback” sanctions could severely affect Iran’s economy, particularly its oil exports, due to mandatory compliance by international partners and intensified scrutiny of Iranian tankers.
According to Saed News, Morteza Afqah, an economic expert, in an interview with Etemad Online regarding the consequences of the return of the UN “snapback” mechanism for the country’s economy, stated: The snapback mechanism has both economic and political dimensions. In this interview, I will focus on its economic aspects. Primarily, sanctions intensified in 2018, and although many countries were not legally obligated to participate in sanctions against Iran, due to the economic power of the United States and its influence in most countries, significant pressure was applied to Iran’s allies, such as China and neighboring countries.
Afqah added: These pressures forced these countries to comply with the sanctions, and in practice, sanctions against Iran intensified. It seems that now, with the return of sanctions, especially oil sanctions, a similar situation is emerging, but this time countries are legally obligated to follow these sanctions.
He continued: According to existing resolutions, Iranian oil tankers must apparently be inspected by all countries. Therefore, I believe that at least 30 to 40 percent of the economic sanctions to be activated will have practical effects. Additionally, the psychological impact of activating the snapback mechanism has already been reflected in the currency market.
In response to a question about the effect of the return of sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, Afqah said: Since the Trump administration came to power, I had predicted that efforts to bypass sanctions would continue. During this period, Iran managed to maintain its oil sales using certain methods, but the number of sanctions has increased day by day. It seems that even if the snapback mechanism is not activated, Trump would continue pressuring China and other buyers of Iranian oil until the country’s oil exports reach zero. He added: Yes, naturally, these pressures will impact Iran’s oil sales because, in addition to US monitoring, other countries are also required to inspect and supervise Iranian oil tankers. Therefore, with the activation of the snapback mechanism, bypassing sanctions will become more difficult for Iran.
Before 2015, Iran faced challenges regarding sanctions, but the current situation is different. On the eve of the sanctions during Ahmadinejad’s era, seven resolutions were issued, which ultimately led to the JCPOA agreement with the approval of the Supreme Leader. Practically, those resolutions were not implemented, but current sanctions will be far stricter than before, and Iran has not faced such severe penalties until now.
