Saed News: The prominent American professor, referring to Iran’s red lines in negotiations with the U.S., stated: *“The Iranians will not abandon their enrichment capacity. At best, Trump will obtain a weaker version of the JCPOA and present it as a historic victory.
According to the Saed News website, Stephen Walt, a prominent professor of international relations at Harvard University, warned during a speech and Q&A session at the Chatham House think tank that a second term for Donald Trump could lead to a “shock to the global system,” endangering not only American democracy but also causing instability in international relations, strengthening authoritarian regimes, and destroying the United States' international credibility.
The event, titled “The Global Implications of Trump’s Second Term,” attracted considerable attention from experts, diplomats, and political science students.
At the beginning of the session, Walt opened his analysis by referring to the unprecedented combination of domestic destruction and strategic blunders under the Trump administration. He argued that a second Trump term would represent the most dangerous redefinition of presidential power in modern American history.
Walt stated:
“Trump and those around him believe the current structure of the United States is corrupt and broken and must be fundamentally transformed.”
According to Walt, Trump has displayed numerous authoritarian tendencies—from the dismissal of hundreds of government employees and the expulsion of thousands of students across the country, to the politicization of the Justice Department and personal profiteering from the presidency.
With irony, he remarked:
“Imagine if Obama had said he received a $400 million plane as a gift from Qatar. What would’ve happened? But now, we just shrug it off.”
The Harvard professor went on to warn that Trump no longer feels bound by the Constitution, and none of the 53 Republican senators has spoken out about his misconduct.
Walt highlighted Trump’s approach to foreign affairs, saying that rather than diplomacy, Trump had reduced U.S. foreign policy to a series of opportunistic transactions.
“To him, the world is divided into winners and losers, the strong and the weak,” he noted.
He added:
“Trump respects authoritarian leaders but distrusts democratic ones. He explicitly claims that international rules and institutions are only useful for losers.”
Walt emphasized that Trump’s approach has damaged traditional U.S. alliances—to the benefit of China.
“Trump wants European countries to spend more, but he’s weakening NATO. His ultimate goal is to fracture the European Union.”
According to Walt, Trump prefers to deal with European countries individually to gain more leverage in negotiations. This strategy, he said, destroys the West’s collective strength and paves the way for China to present itself as a more stable partner.
The Harvard professor also addressed the topic of Iran, acknowledging that Trump is not inclined toward war and may have dissuaded Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.
However, Walt expressed skepticism about the outcome of ongoing negotiations between Iran and the U.S.
“Trump isn’t a warmonger. He probably held Netanyahu back from attacking Iran. He’s desperately pursuing the Nobel Peace Prize and sees a deal with Iran as a possible path to get it.”
That said, Walt admitted that any deal reached between Iran and the U.S. would likely be weaker than the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) that Trump tore up.
“The Iranians will not abandon their enrichment capacity and will not agree to what happened in Libya. At best, Trump will secure a watered-down version of the previous agreement and market it as a historic victory.”
Despite noting Trump’s supposed aversion to war, Walt added:
“If no deal is reached, the likelihood of military conflict rises dramatically. The Trump administration will blame Iran, and pro-Israel lobbies will pressure for military action. Trump might give in to that pressure.”
To date, Iran and the U.S. have conducted four rounds of indirect negotiations, mediated by Oman, to address issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear program. Both sides have generally described the talks as productive and said useful ideas were exchanged, with discussions moving beyond generalities.
After commenting on the U.S.-Iran talks, Walt turned to Trump’s declining popularity within the United States:
“I wrote in Foreign Policy that this may be Trump’s peak. Maybe the American people are finally waking up.”
He pointed to rising inflation and falling business confidence as factors that could trigger a strong reaction in the midterm elections, possibly returning control of Congress to the Democrats.
However, Walt warned that rebuilding the world’s trust in the U.S. will not be easy.
“In 2020, the world could see Trump’s first term as an exception. But now, we’ve elected him again. This is no longer a fluke—it’s becoming the political reality of the United States.”
He concluded the Chatham House session with a sobering message:
“To our friends in Europe and the UK: hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.”
