GIEWS Issues Analysis Highlighting Iran’s Food Security Situation

According to SAEDNEWS, The report outlines key aspects of Iran’s agricultural conditions, including updates on the ongoing farming season, expected yields of primary staple crops, and the state of livestock. It also presents data and projections regarding cereal output and trade, alongside an analysis of trends in food pricing and policy shifts. The document is organized into four principal sections.

Dry weather conditions severely affected wheat production

Following the sowing of wheat between September and November, the onset of winter from December to February 2025 brought unusually low rainfall, negatively impacting crop development and yield. Although rainfall in March, particularly in areas like Khuzestan, alongside irrigation efforts, improved vegetation to some extent, limited precipitation projected for May is expected to hinder final output. Harvesting began in mid-April across southern provinces, while in the north—such as Golestan—the harvest is expected to start in June and wrap up by July.

In response, the government raised the wheat purchase price by 17% compared to the previous year, fixing the rate at IRR 20,500 per kilogram for soft wheat and IRR 21,000 per kilogram for durum wheat. Nevertheless, farmers struggled with high input costs, especially for fertilizers and seeds.

Regarding rice, planting is currently ongoing in major production zones such as Gilan and Mazandaran, with completion anticipated by June 2025.

The Food Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported no sightings of desert locusts in Iran in March 2025, and forecasts show no notable increase in locust activity through mid-May 2025.

Above-average cereal production estimated in 2024

Projections for 2024 place cereal output at around 26 million tonnes, approximately 22% higher than the average. This increase is attributed to favorable rainfall and comprehensive government interventions, including subsidized inputs, affordable credit, and attractive procurement prices that supported greater cultivation.

Low import requirements estimated in 2024/25 on account of above-average wheat output in 2024

Wheat import demand for the 2024/25 season (April–March) is expected to be around 1.3 million tonnes, which is less than half the typical five-year average. This reduction is due to a strong domestic harvest that has replenished reserves. However, for the 2025/26 marketing year, import volumes are expected to rise to make up for anticipated deficits in next year’s production.

Cereal retail prices surged in 2025

Although the preferential exchange rate for essential imports remained unchanged at IRR 285,000 per USD during the 2025/26 fiscal year (21 March 2025 to 20 March 2026), providing some buffer against price hikes for key agricultural goods, prices still climbed. This subsidized rate was about 40% of the market exchange rate, which reached IRR 750,000 per USD by December 2024. Still, the average price of wheat flour in Tehran rose 18% year-on-year by March 2025, driven largely by reductions in subsidy support. During the same period, retail rice prices surged nearly 60% compared to March 2024.