SAEDNEWS: A possible Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea signals a new phase in superpower rivalry, where trade and technology are geopolitical tools, with no clear winner or return to the old economic order.
According to the political news service of SaedNews, Fararu wrote: One should not be deceived by these staged appearances. What is taking shape is not peace, but a new phase of strategic competition between the two economic superpowers—a rivalry in which trade and technology have become tools of geopolitical pressure. Even if, on the surface, China appears to be the winner of Trump’s trade war, the ultimate outcome for the global order is bitter and disappointing: two powers that were once pillars of global free trade are now undermining the very foundations they once stood upon. In this zero-sum struggle, Beijing may emerge stronger, but Washington will grow wearier, and the world will become poorer and more polarized than ever.
The potential meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea arises at a time when trade tensions between the two countries have peaked. U.S. economic pressure has not weakened China; rather, it has strengthened Beijing’s position and accelerated its path toward technological self-reliance and economic independence. With a shrewd strategy, China has redefined global supply chains and reduced its dependence on the United States. As a result, the current trade war has no clear winner and has made the global economic order more fragile.
According to The Economist, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are expected to meet next week in South Korea, though it remains uncertain whether the meeting will actually take place. In recent weeks, relations between Washington and Beijing have noticeably deteriorated: the U.S. has imposed new restrictions on technology exports to China and hinted at possible tariff hikes, while Beijing has responded with sanctions and restrictions on rare earth exports.
Ineffective Threats: Beijing Calm, Washington Discredited
U.S.-China relations have reached their lowest point in years, with the White House assuming it holds the upper hand in this war of nerves. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has bluntly called China “weak,” yet reality tells a different story. In this quiet battle, Beijing has skillfully and methodically countered Washington—sometimes more effectively than Washington itself. China is not only withstanding trade pressures but is gradually testing new frameworks for cross-border trade, potentially reshaping the future balance of the global economy and rewriting the rules of the game.
With Trump’s return to the White House in a potential second term, his approach to China has once again become central. While his military strategy—especially regarding Taiwan—remains ambiguous, his economic stance is unmistakable: maximum pressure on Beijing. The goal was to slow China’s technological rise, curb its manufacturing engine, and secure trade and financial advantages.
Trump’s team even spoke of a “grand bargain” in which China would reform its state capitalism in exchange for the U.S. easing some pressure. Yet six months after implementing these policies, the results defy expectations: China breathes easier, while the United States appears more exhausted than ever.
Three key factors have contributed to this quiet victory:
A – Beijing’s calm, calculated response to Washington’s pressure: This approach has not only contained tensions but occasionally ensnared the U.S. in decision-making traps—a phenomenon political theory terms “escalatory dominance,” in which a clever actor can maintain and even enhance its advantage at every stage of crisis escalation. In Washington, Trump’s critics sarcastically refer to the “TACO” effect (“Trump Always Concedes”), pointing to repeated ambitious threats that are ultimately abandoned halfway.
B – China’s structural power and financial stability: Leveraging strong industrial infrastructure, domestic supply chains, and vast reserves, China has absorbed tariff pressures. When Trump imposed the so-called “Freedom Day” tariffs in April, the Wall Street downturn forced him to revoke them.
C – Rare earth exports as leverage: When China restricted exports of rare earths—vital to advanced U.S. industries—Trump threatened 100% tariffs but again retreated. This recurring pattern of threat and withdrawal has undermined the credibility of Washington’s maximum pressure strategy. Trump’s claims of “completely paralyzing the Chinese economy” no longer hold deterrent weight, as such measures would equally harm the U.S. economy. Markets reflect this: while Washington anxiously watches investors’ reactions, China’s stock market has grown 34% since the start of the year.
