SAEDNEWS: Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are sending shockwaves through global energy markets, as fears of $100-per-barrel oil return to haunt Western economies.
According to Saed News, the United States' growing involvement in the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel has injected a fresh dose of uncertainty into already fragile oil markets. Energy analysts now warn that a three-digit oil price may soon become a grim reality for the global economy.
CNN reports that investors are closely watching Tehran’s response following attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities by the Trump administration, especially after Iran’s foreign minister stated that "all options" are on the table for defense.
In early Asian trading, oil futures surged by more than 2%, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hitting $75.22 per barrel and Brent crude approaching $78.53.
According to Sal Canik, Senior Energy Analyst at MST Marquee in Sydney, there is a real risk that the market could face unprecedented supply disruptions in the coming weeks — similar to the energy shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
While CNBC analysts noted that the market's reaction to U.S. strikes was less aggressive than to previous Israeli attacks, the possibility of Iranian retaliation has ushered in a new era of volatility. Iran's parliament has also approved a resolution to close the Strait of Hormuz — a move that could cripple global oil flows.
This strategic waterway, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, sees nearly 20 million barrels of oil pass through daily — nearly 20% of global supply. Canik emphasized that a full closure could draw Western military forces into direct conflict.
“If the strait remains blocked for more than a few weeks, oil prices could easily surge to $100 a barrel,” he warned. Even slight disruptions, he added, would significantly impact global prices.
Bob McNally, head of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNBC that although the U.S. and its allies would likely reopen the strait eventually, a prolonged conflict involving Iran’s full military capability could outlast both Gulf Wars.
McNally stressed that Iran could severely disrupt oil and LNG flows from the Gulf, leading to extreme price spikes. “A sustained closure or damage to critical energy infrastructure could easily push crude above the $100 mark,” he concluded.
