Even the United States Cannot Save Israel!

According to Saednews, "Tamim Al-Barghouthi," a Palestinian-Egyptian writer and political analyst, in a presentation on his YouTube channel, analyzed the war between the Zionist regime and Iran and the outcome of this war. He believes that even the involvement of the United States cannot help the Zionist regime.

Barghouthi considers any threat to Iran as a serious threat to Russia, China, Pakistan, and even Arab countries, and he explains the dangers of having a pro-Western government coming to power in these countries.

Below is the full text of his presentation:

Complete freedom for Palestine is near.
In 2021, I said, "Complete freedom is possible." Then, when this war started in 2023, I declared that the process had begun, and now I say freedom is near, and Iran’s chance to win — if some of us do not abandon others — is greater than Israel’s chance, even if the United States supports it. Please be patient for a few minutes and judge for yourself what I say.

The people of Iran are not immigrants

First, this war requires endurance, and Iran is stronger than Israel in this regard. Iran is larger in territory and population, and military pressure will not cause demographic changes; its people are neither immigrants nor imports brought for security. But in Israel, just two days of bombing were enough for the government to prevent citizens from leaving because it expects many of them to flee, and such an exodus threatens the government’s ability to mobilize forces and manage the economy. Nevertheless, those same citizens have taken to the sea route and are heading toward Europe.

Second, the political impact of the war in Iran differs from that in Israel.
Confronting the enemy in our countries increases the legitimacy of regimes. In Iran, opponents have gathered around the leadership even before supporters. But in Israel, people tie their stance toward the government to the war’s outcome.

Iran’s allies need Iran

Third, Iran’s allies need Iran more than Israel is necessary for its allies, and surprisingly, this is somewhat true even for the United States. Israel had counted on a military coup in Iran — a coup by those who previously facilitated the assassination of the former president, foreign minister, and commanders of the Palestinian and Lebanese resistance, delaying Iran’s full intervention in this war. Israel wanted those coup plotters to use the first attack and the martyrdom of IRGC commanders as cover for their actions. But this project failed and was exposed on the first day, and Israel and its mercenaries faced the fate of failed coup plotters everywhere.

The result of this failure was that all Iran’s allies realized Israel’s goal is not to stop Iran’s nuclear or missile projects — they know well Iran will rebuild if damaged — but the main goal is overthrowing the entire Islamic Republic regime and replacing it with one loyal to itself and the United States.
So let’s review the map to understand that the survival of the regime in Tehran is far more vital for Iran’s allies in Moscow, Beijing, and Islamabad than Israel’s survival is for Washington.

Regarding Pakistan, it must be known that the current government of India is its enemy and an ally of the United States and Israel. If, God forbid, a pro-American and Israeli regime rises in Tehran, it will inevitably ally with India, leaving Pakistan trapped between two Indias — a vital existential threat to Pakistan and its nuclear program. Pakistan’s vital interests and even existence require it to support Iran and prevent regime change there.

Regarding China, an American-backed regime in Tehran would close all of West Asia to Beijing and disrupt the "Belt and Road" project, upon which China’s global trade and influence depend. Also, weakening China’s ally Islamabad would benefit India, and India-China relations are not only competitive but sometimes hostile and on the verge of war, needing no further explanation.

Regarding Russia, Moscow will never allow its only access to warm seas — the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean — to be lost after defeats in the Balkans and partial setbacks in the Levant. A Western-oriented regime in Tehran would also threaten Russia’s territorial integrity in the oil-rich Caucasus. Furthermore, Russia benefits from Iran’s assistance in the Ukraine war and relies on a strategic alliance with Iran in important Central Asian balances and hundreds of other cases.

The United States cannot either

As for Israel, although the U.S. has extensively supported it in many cases, this time there are limits. The U.S. economic and political situation does not prepare it for a new Middle Eastern war — a war no better than the two previous ones. The U.S. president does not desire such adventurism, and the people reject such wars.

It is true that U.S. intervention is likely — it may have even happened before this message was published — but this intervention will probably be limited to air and intelligence forces and will neither overthrow a regime nor stop missile launches. Gaza and Lebanon experiences clearly show that heavy bombings did not stop missile resistance. Launches continued until the ground invasion and even for a significant time afterward.

Obviously, regime changes cannot come from the sky; they require ground occupation. But neither Israel nor the U.S. are in a position to launch a ground invasion against Iran, especially after the failures of two previous invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan — countries smaller in size and population and far more internally fragmented at the time of attack than Iran.

Moreover, any possible ground invasion of Iran would have to come by sea because none of Iran’s neighbors provide a base or transit for mass invading troops. The largest amphibious operation in human history, Normandy during WWII, involved only 150,000 soldiers. The U.S. needed twice that to occupy Iraq — and still failed. Imagine such an operation against Iran. Therefore, Israel’s direct goals in this war, even with U.S. involvement, are practically impossible.

How likely is Iran’s victory?

But leaving aside Israel’s chances of defeat, what can be said about Iran’s chances of victory? And is this victory certain? My answer, as I have said many times, is: in war, anything is possible. Victory is only possible if some of us do not abandon others.

I ask every Arab and Iranian, ruler or subject, receiving this message, to pay attention to this sentence:

Just as Israel’s victory is only possible if the ruling regime in Iran is overthrown — which is highly unlikely — Iran’s victory is only possible if the Zionist regime in Israel falls — and this is entirely possible.

This war is an all-out zero-or-one battle. There is no middle way. Even if a ceasefire happens tomorrow or dozens happen in the future, the war will continue — with other means and methods — until one of these two regimes overcomes the other.

If a ceasefire occurs before the Zionist regime falls, Israel will resume efforts to overthrow Iran’s regime by other means: conspiracies, infiltration, sectarian provocations, and psychological warfare. Because this enemy is more skilled and dangerous in peacetime than wartime.

Evidence is clear: ceasefire experiences in Lebanon and prior repeated ceasefires in Gaza showed genocide and siege continued even during ceasefires. So it must be understood that in this battle and all fronts, ceasefire is merely one tool of war — rather, beyond that, a tool for betrayal, deception, and assassination. One must not forget that the Israeli regime itself was established 77 years ago by taking advantage of a ceasefire.

Therefore, I repeat: this war is zero-or-one. If a ceasefire temporarily stops fighting, the battle will continue by other means until one regime ends. In this equation, the entire Islamic Ummah’s interests lie only in Iran’s absolute victory, because its replacement will be nothing but a disaster.

O people! This war began when Israel found itself facing two existential threats: first, the resistance coalition led by Iran; second, the Arab majority population in historic Palestine.

If Israel can deliver a fatal blow to the heart of the resistance axis — Iran — or gain time to rebuild its power through a temporary ceasefire, it will not be satisfied with that.

It will immediately go after the second threat: the Arab majority in Palestine. Gaza is the spearhead of this population — the densest Arab region in Palestine in terms of population and weapons. Therefore, Israel will try to relocate Gaza’s people toward Egypt and violate the Egypt-Israel peace treaty.

If successful, it will immediately follow with forced relocation of West Bank residents to Jordan. Know that if Israel escapes confrontation with the resistance front, it will immediately target pacifists and normalization advocates as well because this regime’s survival depends on eliminating all opponents — whether fighters or peace-seekers. This is exactly what the Israeli prime minister means when he talks about “changing the regional map.”

Israel has plans for everyone

Egypt is the first target of forced relocation due to its proximity to Gaza, and Israel will never abandon this goal as long as it is called “Israel,” since it links its existence to forced displacement. If the longest ceasefire in its history — the peace agreement with Egypt — cannot stop it, no other ceasefire will.

So the only salvation for Egypt — and not just Egypt — is the fall of the Zionist regime, right now.

After Egypt, Jordan will be targeted due to its adjacency to the West Bank. Then Syria will be targeted, as Israel intends to partition it: a sectarian state in the south and an ethnic state in the north. After Syria, Turkey will be targeted because a pro-Israel government rising in the Euphrates region threatens Turkey’s territorial integrity in the southeast. This is what the Turkish president referred to when he said, “Palestinian resistance in Gaza defends Anatolia.”

The equation between Israel and countries like Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey is a zero-or-one equation; the same applies to Israel’s relations with Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. We have reached a point where the threat is the same for both the resistance front and peace-seek

ers: if one side does not win completely, the other will.

The Jewish people’s persecution and the necessity of a homeland gave rise to Israel. It created this regime with war, and it will end it with war, because all of Israel’s “victories” in the past 77 years have been temporary and built on the denial of Palestinians’ existence and rights. This denial is no longer sustainable.

This war is a historic turning point.
If Iran wins, it will change West Asia’s strategic map. All resistance fronts will be strengthened, the region’s Arab and Muslim nations will regain confidence and strength, and global powers such as China, Russia, and Pakistan will have a permanent ally in the Middle East, shifting the balance of power for decades.

If Israel wins, it will mean the destruction of the resistance, the fragmentation of West Asia into sectarian and ethnic states, and a permanent U.S.-Israeli domination of the region.

Therefore, the entire Islamic Ummah, all its factions and peoples, must unite behind Iran’s victory to save their collective future.

This message is not about propaganda, but about facts and strategic analysis. I invite every Arab and Muslim to consider carefully: the fall of the Zionist regime is not only possible, but probable, and it is the only path to lasting peace and justice in the region.