SAEDNEWS: Professor Shireen Hunter links Tahrir al-Sham to al-Qaeda and doubts a Salafi-Muslim Brotherhood conflict. She expects Syria to prioritize anti-Iranian and anti-Shia propaganda and possible terrorism.
According to SaedNews, citing Tabnak News, Hunter states that it remains uncertain whether Turkey can turn its success in Syria into broader regional dominance. However, she considers it unlikely that Arab nations will challenge Turkey’s growing influence.
Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, Tahrir al-Sham, backed by Turkey, has taken control. However, in recent days, public protests, particularly among Alawites in Alawite-majority regions, have been spreading.
To analyze Syria’s future after Assad’s downfall, Tabnak News conducted an interview with Professor Shireen Hunter, an expert on Iranian politics, the Middle East, and political Islam. Below is the full discussion:
Before the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Hunter was a member of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Following the revolution, she migrated to the U.S., where she became a member of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations. She is fluent in Persian, English, French, and Turkish.
Among her notable works is the book "Iranian-Arab Relations: Processes of Tension and Adaptation", which examines how cultural rivalries, modernization, ethnic and religious conflicts, state-building, and global power dynamics have shaped Iran-Arab relations over the past seven decades.
Q: With Assad’s fall, Turkey has gained the upper hand in the region. Some believe this shift in power will increase the likelihood of regional conflicts. What is your assessment?
Hunter: It is still unclear whether Turkey can turn its victory in Syria into full regional dominance. However, it is unlikely that Arab countries will challenge Turkey’s growing power. Major Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are more focused on domestic priorities.
Additionally, Turkey does not have significant ideological conflicts with these countries. Some, like Qatar, are even close allies of Ankara. While competition between Turkey and certain Arab states may continue, a major confrontation is highly unlikely.
Q: Since the Arab Spring (2011), Iran and the "Axis of Resistance" (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah) have been in competition with the Muslim Brotherhood (Turkey and Qatar) and the Western-backed Salafi bloc (Saudi Arabia, UAE, and their allies). Could this rivalry re-emerge?
Hunter: The Muslim Brotherhood-Salafi rivalry has never been particularly serious. Both factions are Sunni, and it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia or the UAE would engage in conflict with Syria’s new government over concerns about the Brotherhood.
Moreover, Syria’s new government and Tahrir al-Sham are not strictly aligned with the Brotherhood. Tahrir al-Sham originated from al-Qaeda, an extremist Salafi-Takfiri group. Given this, I doubt we will see a direct Brotherhood vs. Salafi conflict. Instead, the Syrian government will focus on anti-Iranian and anti-Shia propaganda, as well as potential terrorist activities targeting Iran.
Q: Could regional tensions escalate into a greater rivalry between Iran and Turkey in the South Caucasus?
Hunter: Iran has already lost the Caucasus rivalry to Turkey—not due to Turkey’s strength, but because of Western backing for Ankara. In Azerbaijan, Turkey benefits from linguistic and cultural ties.
Moreover, Iran has failed to leverage its rich Persian cultural, literary, and musical heritage, instead focusing solely on religious influence. Israel’s involvement has also played a role, and Russia has actively worked against Iran’s interests in the region.
Due to economic weakness and political isolation, Iran lacks the necessary tools to compete with Turkey in the Caucasus.
Q: Despite Armenia’s insistence on maintaining its territorial sovereignty and borders, Turkey’s Minister of Transport recently stated that Ankara is continuing negotiations with Azerbaijan on the Zangezur Corridor. Given the current circumstances, do you think this project will move forward?
Hunter: If Russia and Turkey agree to develop the Zangezur Corridor, Armenia will not be able to stop it. Furthermore, Armenia may be offered incentives to approve the project.
Iran, too, is not in a position to block it. If Tehran resorts to military action, it will give Turkey—and possibly Israel and Western powers—an excuse to intervene. Past miscalculations and strategic mistakes have significantly limited Iran’s options in the Caucasus and beyond.
Q: The fall of the Assad regime has weakened Russia’s position in the Middle East. Given the current dynamics, how can Russia regain its influence in the region?
Hunter: Even before Assad’s fall, Russia’s war in Ukraine had severely undermined its ability to exert influence elsewhere, including in the Middle East. Economically, Russia has little to offer the region.
As a result, it is highly unlikely that Moscow will be able to recover its regional standing anytime soon. Russia also made a strategic error by supporting Turkey over Iran. Ultimately, recent events have shown that Iran cannot rely on Russia for support.
