SAEDNEWS: As debates swirl over Azerbaijan’s purported role in Israel’s “12‑Day War” strikes, strategic analyst Dr Hassan Beheshti‑Pour cautions that a hasty military response could open an unwanted northern front for Iran.
According to Saed News, Dr Hassan Beheshti‑Pour’s exclusive commentary challenges calls by hard‑line voices for a pre‑emptive strike on Azerbaijan—allegedly complicit in facilitating Israeli air operations against Iran. He distils the debate into three provisional scenarios: outright denial of any Azerbaijani involvement; covert overflight without Baku’s knowledge; or a clandestine partnership with Israeli forces supplying air corridors and refuelling support.
Beheshti‑Pour underscores that only the second and third scenarios carry strategic weight—and even then, hard evidence remains elusive. “Absent incontrovertible proof,” he argues, “Iran risks undermining its diplomatic credibility by resorting to force.” Echoing Baku’s official denials, the analyst posits that Iran should exhaust legal and diplomatic channels before contemplating sanctions—or worse, military reprisals.
Crucially, he warns that opening a conflict along Iran’s northwestern border would stretch Tehran’s military apparatus thin, especially while still confronting Israel directly and confronting deep‑pocketed Western adversaries. “Azerbaijan may draw support from Ankara,” he notes, “transforming a tit‑for‑tat reaction into a full‑blown multi‑front crisis.”
Instead, Beheshti‑Pour advocates a calibrated strategy: press for transparent air‑space investigations, cultivate fractures among Iran’s regional detractors, and reserve kinetic options for a moment of highest strategic utility. In his view, “revolutionary zeal” must not override sober calculation. By holding fire and seizing the diplomatic initiative, Iran safeguards both its international standing and its capacity to shape events on its own terms.
