SAEDNEWS: Reports indicate that Europe is attempting to activate the snapback mechanism; however, the economic effects of this process can be managed with proper measures.
Given that negotiations between Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the three European countries concluded without a clear result, speculation now points to the activation of the snapback mechanism in the coming days.
According to Saed News, the foreign ministers of Germany, the United Kingdom, and France stated in a joint declaration on August 8, 2025, that they were “ready to activate the snapback mechanism.” With this potential European action, questions arise among experts and the public about what the snapback mechanism actually is and what impact it will have on Iran’s economy.
The snapback mechanism is a legal tool embedded within the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and UN Security Council Resolution 2231. It allows member countries of the agreement (the UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China) to automatically reinstate previous UN Security Council sanctions in the event of any alleged violation of nuclear commitments by Iran, without the need for a new vote.
This mechanism provides European countries with leverage to revive all restrictions that would have expired at the end of the JCPOA-defined period, effectively nullifying the agreement.
One of the JCPOA member countries submits a formal complaint regarding Iran’s alleged violation of commitments to the Joint Commission.
The Commission has 15 days to review and resolve the issue. If the dispute is unresolved, it is escalated to the foreign ministers, who have an additional 15–20 days to examine the matter.
If after these 35 days the complaining country remains unsatisfied, it may refer the issue to the UN Security Council.
The Security Council must vote within 30 days on whether to continue the suspension of sanctions.
If even one of the permanent Security Council members (the US, Russia, China, France, or the UK) vetoes the continuation of the suspension, UN sanctions are automatically reinstated without the need for a new vote.
However, European countries do not intend to follow this legal procedure. The Wall Street Journal reported that, assuming European countries activate the snapback mechanism tomorrow, the President of the UN Security Council would have 10 days to issue a resolution to suspend UN Security Council sanctions against Iran. Within the next 20 days, Security Council members would vote on the President’s proposed resolution. This resolution could normally be vetoed by the UK, France, or the US. Since it is expected that this will occur, UN sanctions could be reinstated within a maximum of 30 days. In other words, the procedure European countries intend to follow is outside the framework foreseen in the JCPOA and activates UN Security Council sanctions against Iran, even though Iran has already completed all legal procedures for countermeasures.
Although the activation of the snapback mechanism cannot produce substantial real effects on Iran’s economy and politics, it carries short-term psychological and minor economic consequences.
Activating the snapback mechanism would reinstate UN Security Council sanctions previously issued under resolutions 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, and 1929 against Iran. These sanctions include travel bans and asset freezes on certain individuals, institutions, and companies; allow UN member states to inspect Iranian air and maritime shipments; and prohibit arms trade. A key point is that these resolutions do not include oil or central bank sanctions, which reduces their overall impact.
Moreover, since U.S. sanctions are broader and have more serious consequences than UN Security Council sanctions, the snapback mechanism is unlikely to have a significant economic effect. Nevertheless, some experts believe that the psychological impact could slightly raise currency prices.
In conclusion, the economic effects of activating the snapback mechanism are expected to be minimal. Therefore, Iran must respond decisively to protect its sovereignty, international legitimacy, and prevent these threats from spreading into military or security domains.
In this context, considering Western efforts to leverage the snapback mechanism, opportunities such as the President’s upcoming visit to China could help Iran mitigate the economic and political impact. Actions like securing oil export channels and implementing development projects, alongside an active role by the Central Bank in capital markets, could manage expectations and reduce potential disruptions.
