Military and Strategic Affairs Analyst: A New Deterrence Equation Has Been Established in Favor of Tehran

According to Saednews’s Wednesday report quoting Shahab News Agency, Ahmad Mizab, a military and strategic affairs expert, said: The ceasefire agreement between Iran and the Zionist regime was not accidental but the result of mutual political and military messages, the most prominent of which was the targeting of the Al Udeid U.S. military base in Qatar. This event marked a moment that changed the general lines of conflict in the region and established a new deterrence equation in favor of Tehran.

He added: Iran ended this round of conflict from a position of strength without moving toward a full-scale confrontation with the U.S. Tehran also sent the message that it has the capability to target the depths of U.S. interests if Washington or Tel Aviv insist.

Mizab emphasized: Iran has become a party that is difficult to ignore, and this followed Iran’s steadfastness under pressure and direct retaliation from its own territory using advanced weapons, most notably long-range missiles and precise drones, without facing any severe U.S. attacks.

The military expert said: The Israeli regime left this round without achieving all its goals, after losing part of its deterrence and failing to drag Iran into an all-out war.

Regarding the situation of the U.S., the analyst stated: It seems the United States is in a chaotic state and tried to contain the tension instead of leading it. Targeting the Al Udeid airbase in Qatar sent a message to Washington that, for reasons including involvement in the Ukraine war and concerns about escalating tensions in the Asia front with China, it was reluctant to escalate the conflict.

Mizab said: Iran’s resilience is a strategic victory. The battle has now turned into a political struggle with military backing, and each side is on alert moving toward the negotiation table, negotiating with one hand while keeping the other on the trigger.

Regarding Iran’s enriched uranium, the analyst said: Iran views it as a political and strategic deterrence lever and will not relinquish it in future negotiations because any waiver would be seen as weakness and threaten years of deterrence.

About the ceasefire’s impact on Gaza, he noted that the ceasefire between Iran and the Israeli regime also has an indirect effect on developments in Gaza. He recalled that the Israeli regime’s position has weakened and it lacks maneuvering ability amid declining international support and increasing internal problems. This event will not immediately end the Gaza war but will accelerate pressures for a ceasefire. Iran will keep the Gaza front as a bargaining chip in the broader conflict framework without unilateral escalation or miscalculation.

According to IRNA, on June 13, the Zionist regime, in a blatant violation of international law and Iran’s national sovereignty, targeted areas in Tehran and other cities, including the country’s nuclear facilities, with military attacks. In this terrorist act, several scientists, military personnel, and civilians were martyred.

Following this aggression, the United States also joined Israel’s war against Iran by directly attacking the nuclear sites of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan in the early hours of June 22.

On Tuesday, the U.S. president claimed a ceasefire agreement between Iran and the Zionist regime. The Islamic Republic of Iran stated that it was not the initiator of the war and emphasized that if the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression, Iran has no intention to continue responding.