SAEDNEWS: Analysts hold two contrasting views regarding the developments following the Gaza ceasefire. One group believes these events could spark a new round of conflict with Iran, while another argues that they might completely eliminate the likelihood of war or confrontation with the country.
According to the political service of Saed News, the ceasefire in Gaza has begun at a time when many are watching closely to see the future of the Middle East. Some believe that now that the Gaza conflict has been partially resolved, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might turn his attention to Iran, seeking to address that challenge as well. Israeli leaders have repeatedly claimed that Iran is Israel’s greatest enemy in the region and that only by resolving existing tensions with Iran can they feel secure.
But how could the issue between Iran and Israel be resolved? Could the Gaza ceasefire be the precursor to a future war between Iran and Israel, or might it become the first step toward a long-term regional ceasefire, helping to resolve disputes—or at least reduce conflict—with Iran?
Analysts are divided. Some see the post-ceasefire developments as potentially leading to a new war with Iran. Others believe the opposite—that this moment may reduce the likelihood of future conflict.
Those who argue that the Gaza ceasefire could pave the way for a new war with Iran emphasize that Israel’s hardline government is likely to prioritize Iran once the Gaza issue is settled. They suggest that the ceasefire gives Netanyahu and his allies the space to focus fully on confronting Iran. In the eyes of Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and other hardliners, Iran is the main challenge, and now may be the best opportunity to address it.
Prominent American political theorist John Mearsheimer asserts that Israel aims to create a situation for Iran similar to Syria and is far from satisfied with merely resolving Iran’s nuclear issue. Analysts in this camp also argue that one reason the Gaza war dragged on was Netanyahu’s attempt to avoid facing trial; it is possible that, to delay impeachment or counter political rivals, he could provoke another conflict.
On the other hand, some see the Gaza ceasefire as a potential first step toward a wider regional ceasefire. Ali Akbar Velayati, former Iranian Foreign Minister, recently suggested that this could influence the Israel-Iran conflict and push it toward peace.
Several factors support this view: the potential return of Donald Trump to regional politics, the unresolved issue of Hamas, the risk of renewed conflict between Israel and Gaza resistance forces, Israel’s need to focus on Gaza, the possibility of settlement expansion in the West Bank, the fatigue and weakened logistics of the Israeli military after 12 days of war, public frustration in Israel with ongoing conflict, and damage to occupied cities from Iranian missiles. All these factors suggest that the Gaza ceasefire is unlikely to ignite a second Israel-Iran war.
Yet, nothing is certain. The durability and scope of the Gaza ceasefire are still unclear. So what comes next? Should we brace for a second war between Israel and Iran, or should we view the Gaza ceasefire as a potential stepping stone toward easing tensions with Iran?
