SAEDNEWS: Hakan Fidan's remarks against Iran and his use of the expression "throwing stones at glass," implying fragility and leverage against Iran, are a natural outcome of the regional changes over the past year.
According to SAEDNEWS, citing Khorasan newspaper, Turkey previously did not view Iran as a capable player in the political economy, but now it perceives Iran as weak even in the geopolitical arena. On the other hand, the failure of Turkey’s neo-Ottoman policies regarding Syria from 2017 to 2022 had forced it to distance itself from its previous aggressive stance.
However, Iran's weakening in the region and Turkey's increasing control over Syria have reignited Erdogan and his team's neo-Ottoman ambitions. This is especially true now that, after 27 years, Öcalan has reportedly accepted the end of the PKK, opening the path to reducing or even resolving one of Turkey's biggest security issues—the Kurdish question.
Meanwhile, Hakan Fidan himself is a key figure. He is likely to be Erdogan’s successor in the next term. Erdogan’s health condition is visibly deteriorating, making it highly unlikely that he will be able to run in the next elections.
Yet, it is crucial to understand that Turkey is facing a significant problem in Syria. While only Aleppo was supposed to be added to Tahrir al-Sham’s holdings, the entire country has effectively fallen under the burden of both this group and Turkey. This comes at a time when Turkey is just beginning to recover from years of severe GDP decline and inflation. Furthermore, some rifts with Qatar could prove significant in this regard. Israel’s renewed ambitions in southern Syria and its efforts to establish the "David Corridor" to connect with the Kurds are also new challenges for Turkey.
Syria's economic and security situation remains unstable, and it is likely that protests will gradually emerge. In this context, Turkey is concerned about Iran’s role in increasing tensions in Syria. However, the real issue is not Iran’s actions but rather Turkey’s own mistakes in this highly dangerous game. While Israel has stationed itself inside Syrian territory and plans to advance further, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are also strongly displeased and are actively seeking to weaken Turkey.
The most crucial factor in this entire scenario is Syria’s internal stability, which has remained intact so far. Any disruption to this fragile security could collapse Erdogan’s entire high-stakes strategy.
The key message to Fidan is that Iran is not the only player in this game. Even Turkey’s own allies feel threatened by the situation and are working to undermine it. Therefore, it would be wise for Fidan to abandon his naïve rhetoric toward Iran and avoid taking bites larger than he can chew.
