8 Million Bitcoins in the Red: Is an 80% Drop Coming?

According to the Science and Technology Desk of Saed News, profit and loss indicators in the Bitcoin network have reached levels typically observed during severe recessions or bear markets. Statistical data show that over 8.2 million Bitcoin units are currently in a loss position. While this figure is still below the 10.6 million record set in 2022, it is the highest observed since late that year.

Experts analyzing the current situation are divided into two groups with differing perspectives:

Optimistic View: Some analysts believe that the reduction of profitable Bitcoins to around 11.2 million units signals “undervaluation.” This group suggests that the market is approaching a price floor, and the current conditions resemble the final stages of past downward cycles.

Cautious View: Others emphasize that these figures mainly reflect market stress and pressure and do not necessarily indicate that prices have hit a bottom. They note that during the 2022 crisis, more than 50% of the total supply was at a loss, whereas the current indicator shows a lower figure.

Additionally, analysis shows that Bitcoin has dropped about 52% from its all-time high, a relatively mild decline compared to past drops of 80%. Macroeconomic factors, such as a stronger dollar index (DXY) and a global liquidity squeeze due to ongoing tight monetary policies, have hindered a rapid price recovery. Forecasts suggest that until U.S. interest rates are adjusted and the appeal of dollar yields diminishes—likely in the second half of 2026—Bitcoin will face significant obstacles in returning to a strong upward trend.