Will Israel Attack Iran Again During the Negotiations?

According to the political desk of the Saed News website, Hamidreza Jalaeipour, a reformist political activist, discussed Iran–U.S. indirect negotiations and the possibility of war in part of an interview with Khabar Online. Below is an excerpt from that conversation:

Given that the first round of talks between Iran and the United States has been described as positive, what is your prediction about the negotiations? Do you see the outlook as positive or negative, and why?

On such matters, it is not possible to make a scientific or precise prediction. Even now, Netanyahu is heading to the United States. Typically, he travels there to encourage the U.S. to go to war with Iran, not to promote negotiations. Trump himself posts a shocking tweet almost every day. In such an environment, prediction is not possible. The country must, first and foremost, be prepared to defend itself.

We can only make weak “guesses” about the horizon of negotiations. For example, one might guess that since neither side wants a long war, there is a possibility of an agreement between Iran and the United States. Iran is prepared to defend the country and is not seeking war. If the U.S. or Israel attacks Iran, Iran will defend itself, as it did during the twelve-day war. On the other hand, it is not beneficial for Trump to involve himself in another long war for Israel’s sake. Of course, this assumption is based on the condition that criminal Israel (and the U.S.) do not carry out aggression against Iran during the negotiation period and do not repeat their past crimes.

Is it possible that an agreement between Iran and the United States will be reached this time, considering that Iran has emphasized it will not accept zero enrichment?

The range of possibilities is always broad. As I mentioned earlier, the likelihood of an agreement is weak. However, like the JCPOA, the process of reaching an agreement involves ups and downs. At the same time, the possibility of war and sabotage by Israel and the United States also exists.

Given the scenarios regarding war, how likely is it that hardliners could prevent an agreement?

In my view, under the current conditions, the most significant obstacles to an agreement between Iran and the United States are the Israeli government and the neoconservatives within the U.S. bureaucracy. It remains to be seen whether the unbalanced and unpredictable Trump can overcome them, or whether he will once again be overpowered by Netanyahu.